ODBC

The promise of planning, architecture, engineering, and construction is helpful but not in the way we think. 

Designers, planners, architects, and all of us, suffer from several well-documented cognitive failings that distort our ability to predict accurately. But, hey, the future is not that easy to expect, but this could be changing due to two causalities:

  • Are we more likely not to believe evidence contradicting a commonly adopted meaning of a bright-line or hot-button event? The event is easy to recall, leading to the likelihood of overestimating the significance of each event’s incidence. We are, consequently, less likely to accept contradictory evidence without the bright lines.
  • We know how to make events recur with increasing accuracy, along with the sunrise and the tide. But, the capacity to build for the future does not include knowing what it will mean to people or do to their lives.

Solid psychological evidence of these abilities and behaviors leads to one of The Report’s favorite things — inevitable conclusions. With human behavior data, governments and businesses use open database connectivity (ODBC) to build businesses. ODBC is a powerful alternative to firms making decisions based on an expert’s track record.

ODBC is complicated because we are all involved. Knowingly and without our knowledge, we are all participants in a massive regression to the mean experiment. New ODBC business partnerships bring unbelievably accurate tools to analyze/improve urban evolution using a delicate participation process with some sticky privacy issues.

New kinds of knowledge capital are consistently built through curiosity and action. General preferences are finely tuned essentials of routine design decisions predicated by the senses of the human body. The ODBC benefit builds on this framework for a reform movement in which designers, planners, architects, and engineers acquire the leadership role and lose their subservience to capital by capturing a higher level of control over its uses. Aside from the political challenges involved, the advancement of certainty is a forceful way to ensure the quality of human life on earth.

The Decline of Expert Discretion

I offer two examples as to why this decline is probable. First, in Super Crunchers: Why Thinking-by-Numbers Is the New Way to Be Smart, Ayres describes the replacement of the “expert” whose knowledge is built on experience and track record by step-by-step procedures with fact-holding computers for data modeling. He argues that anything can be predicted. Just before the publication of Super Crunchers, an equally popular book entitled Freakonomics by Steven D. Levitt and Stephen J. Dubner illustrated how extensive analysis of databases reveals hidden causes and new questions replacing the “firm expert” approach to community development services.

These writers explore new business structures that replace the expert. They skillfully illustrate how massive datasets and quantitative analyses make hundreds of real-world decisions using algorithms for people asking better questions. The question posed here does not regard removing the role captured by traditional experts from the policy framework. The question is not when or if but how quickly it becomes inevitable. Is there any solace in this truth? It seems the answer is yes.

The remaining and most important human element is to guess. Guessing requires a test to discover the variables that should and should not be included in statistical analysis. In other words, generating a hypothesis remains ultimately human. To ask “what causes what” remains the most valid human act.

What Causes What?

Our present experience is coupled with a dense urban environment where the exponential growth in the number of variables affecting choice is now instantly available. These “sets” of information are beyond our “intuitive” abilities to use, let alone an individual or team’s skill at defining problems. However, tools, such as telescopes in space or microscopes in laboratories, force new observations. We thought they were stars, but they are galaxies, and we are a little blue marble in one of them. We can’t see the “atom” but know why they are objects of matter smaller than a wave of light. This quality of observational insight is now available regarding human behavior.

The selection of statistical inferences capable of building datasets that explore human behavior is a vital new policy tool. Hours of sleep, the expenditure of dollars on everything-everywhere, miles traveled, even tears shed, and a laugh out loud. It will help designers to see things never seen. Discovering novelty and asking questions will be the source of human insight in regression to the mean data. Still, the origins of data to establish commonality will define the ultimate decision-making structure of every individual. The trade-off could and must be equal. For example, look at this narrative on Earth Day (here).

Consensus on OBDC

Therefore, the consensus on this question is developing: There is a lack of extensive knowledge regarding viable algorithms helpful in defining the aesthetic of the urban living experience as weighed against the privacy sought. New questions:

  • How will people be added to this group to develop the super-crunching urban design discussion?
  • How will end-user experience data become a routine product for design and planning firms in dense urban and metropolitan areas?
  • How is urban design data produced, made accessible, and used to alter urban design practices?

Investments measure participation. Growth in sharing data reveals that a significant percentage of people who purchase data services also bank their information to facilitate exchanges in everything that can be digital. In addition, establishing data connectivity with everything people do suggests a nonorganic capacity for replicating self, community, or company with everything digital.

What is Owned?

As a proprietary issue, the strategy is to prevent exposure of the power to own your digital existence. The essential sources of old and new capital streams are secure but not manageable. Most importantly, the structures of this ownership have yet to coalesce. It is a trend in itself. The good/evil potential will be exposed and debated. The central question is how to defragment the feedback to a useful purpose. That, too, is becoming predictable. More intense questions, however, will develop politically, such as: which party or factions will control two narratives on two issues — privacy and its value. 

Reliable data from trends identified by trading unfathomable numbers are linked to the use of the digital realm capable of recording every imaginable purpose. Given this condition is a rapidly growing process with significant unknowns, the following steps are necessary:

  1. Recognize the process as unstoppable
    1. A matter of data, proof, and variables
  2. Determine High-Priority Data Streams
    1. Examples: water use per capita, illness reporting, and ppm 10-15
  3. Build High Priority Transparency on each selection.
    1. Establish penalties for share non-compliance
  4. Determine Central Agency Authority and Accountability
    1. National legislation
  5. Determine Global Agency Authority and Accountability
    1. Global legislation

Vast data management companies focus organizations on global data on a per-issue basis, such as determining what drives human curiosity (media), encouraging innovation (science), and developing trust (politics) with proof, which yields essential capital. On the other hand, it remains ungrounded by national and global policies with a sense of priority for effective international action. The lack of change is one of the signals of impending “tipping point” transformations.   


Two books that offer some insight are: Freakonomics [Revised and Expanded]: A Rogue Economist Explores the Hidden Side of Everything and Super Crunchers: Why Thinking-by-Numbers Is the New Way to Be Smart

Density Favorites

Our one purpose is to participate in a forum on the complexity of urban density and examine its makers worldwide. In the research for Density, we are reading hundreds of websites, books, and articles. Most are online.  We are not stepping completely away from the dead tree press, but new opportunities are exposed with more than one thing in hand at a time. This is wide open network team. Privacy remaing permanent. Expectations are listed below.

RLC
  1. The objectives implied by this purpose will require the expertise of many contributors with various skills and thousands of locations. For example, the development and use of KML code will add an important online function.
  2. Our team envisions regionally and city-based writers willing to establish a long-term research effort on opportunities created by urban density, The product will describe the problems density helps to solveby analyzing issues, various approaches, and action ideas.
  3. The partnership aims to produce a continuous, worldwide exploration of dense urban environments’ successes (or failures).
  4. Additional excerpts from a working draft of Density includes an offer to join in developing this “partnership project.”
  5. Begin by sending an inquiry below or for a different approach on the policies and politics of Density see Writers Wanted


Posts: New to Old

The White Chair
Michael Wolf The White Chair Prompt The photographer's relationship to architecture equips us with a possibility — an agreement of care for the immense impact of density on human life. …
Road Density
The Global Roads Inventory Project (GRIP) dataset describes 60 geospatial datasets on road infrastructure worldwide, covering 222 countries and over 21?million?km of roads. The dataset is split into 5 types: …
Urban Mobility
Artists of various urban futures are fond of envisioning the easy movement of people and goods as a visually exciting urban benefit. We see crowded, yet free-flowing shoulder-to-shoulder sidewalks, sweeping …
Evacuation
Don't run, just know where to go. The zones vary Most observers know from experience that the low cost of land and lower population densities occur from the center of …
Create 2,000 Dense Places
I have a plan for 2,000 dense urban places, with 20,000 people each connected to high-speed communication systems. Each is an urban core offering specific opportunities for unlimited growth in a …
Seven Declarations
Declarations develop an emotional capacity for change on behalf of family and community, a town or city, a state and nation, province and commonwealth. The following declarations describe qualities of …
The Unlimited Inside
Unrestrained Outside & Unlimited Insides. How does density save the wilderness, support sustainable agriculture, and do not harm purpose?  If the problem is defined within the global colonization and destruction …
Networks
Human cognitive mapping abilities are well documented. The addition of GPS devices to this research yield maps of everything that moves in the urban world among the stuff that doesn't …
Limited Expansiveness
Sirius, 2006, by Lita Albuquerque, photo by Jean de Pomereu (Domus) From 1800 to 2000, planning, engineering, and architecture, served to create a vast expansion of the urban world. It …
Zoning GHG
New York City's newest set of proposed zoning changes will re-write rules to remove impediments to constructing and retrofitting buildings in every land use. The objective: reduce urban energy consumption and …

Posts: Old to New

Earthdays
Metro = Megacity/Megacorp + OBDCEarthday, urban land use, and management in the 21st century Without a national land-use …
Planet of Cities
This history of human settlements is a story of continuous growth and increasing urban densities that reduce per …
One Bryant Park
In thoughtful research reporting, the requirement, to sum up, should become a higher priority. In Skyscrapers and the …
Zoning GHG
New York City's newest set of proposed zoning changes will re-write rules to remove impediments to constructing and retrofitting …


    Road Density

    The Global Roads Inventory Project (GRIP) dataset describes 60 geospatial datasets on road infrastructure worldwide, covering 222 countries and over 21?million?km of roads. The dataset is split into 5 types: highways/ primary/ secondary/ tertiary/ local roads. It is used by organizations such as GloBio to monitor human impacts on biodiversity. The GRIP dataset consists of global and regional vector datasets in ESRI file geodatabase and shapefile format and global raster datasets of road density at a 5 arcminutes resolution (~8x8km).RLC

    Data gathering such as this may appear to be a process like that of an embalmer, given the rate of change in biodiversity and the increase of global warming gases, largely facilitated by the expansion of roads and what the lead to for our use. But, could it be that simple? Would it be possible to end road construction?

    The Global Roads Inventory Project (GRIP) dataset was developed to provide a more recent and consistent global roads dataset for global environmental and biodiversity assessment models such as GLOBIO. The GRIP dataset consists of global and regional vector datasets in ESRI file geodatabase and shapefile format and global raster datasets of road density at a 5 arcminutes resolution (~8x8km).

    The United Kingdom has a national land-use policy like most of the EU. However, the UK is a dense island nation represented by a core of residential, institutional, and commercial urban centers in Scotland, England, Wales, and Northern Ireland. While the relationship with the Republic of Ireland is improving, it is deteriorating with the EU due to Brexit and complications with Northern Ireland.

    The urgency of sustainable energy or a zero-waste world is well defined philosophically, but the question of successful implementation is unanswered.  On the other hand, the UK might be the first place of significant size where implementation will offer some hope.

    In the United States and the EU, economic policy distributes energy resources to accomplish affordability while anticipating a period of increased scarcity extending through the twenty-first century. 

    The increase in “green deals” and the promotion of tech innovations focus on all levels of new urban development.  Alternative bio-energy/hybrid systems design materials based on re-use as the sustainable alternative addresses 10% to 20% of the problem. This is roughly equivalent to the rate of new products entering the market.  The remaining 80% to 90% is represented by the world that is already built.

    The issue is neatly symbolized in the United States by the high-speed train.  Thousands of rail mass transit miles in older urban centers offer a century of trial and error development of enormous value to successful urbanization.  For example, the New York City transit service area is just 321 square miles serving its 8 plus million residents who, over the course of one year, will travel nearly 12 billion miles. 

    (See the National Transit Database for your region).

    Older mass transit systems are examples of how government absorbs private economic development in the public interest.  Based on where and when the goalposts are set, “a penny saved” and “payback” investment in the existing dense core should encourage the holders of real estate to invest mightily to save millions. Still, the capital continues to move to greenfield opportunity (AKA – nice flat farmland) and in the American drylands (mid-to southwest areas), where substantial new development has occurred.

    As of the beginning of the 21st century, nothing compels investors to “future-proof” past the wonders of a solid ROI.   Doing so will require new forms of public investment to move the dime on the zero-sum question by limiting development outside of the present urban core with various disincentives.

    Similar limitations are outlined in the vital areas of the social economy.   The social security systems of European and American origin drew a safety line around everyone.   These health, education, welfare, and defense investments borrowed extensively on continuously advancing “productivity” technologies.  Is it reasonable to protect the high cost of long life and civil society, or is it more responsible for funding a permanent state of global warfare in various combat settings?

    The only threat to analysts becomes increased social and economic dysfunctions contained within “regions.” The bet on technology, a reasoned quality of life contract, and a way to end the confrontational conditions caused by the poor allocation of energy resources require a serious look at the lines of demarcation.

    DATASETS & INDICATORS

    The following list of “road datasets” suggests how important investors assess this large public function. Conduct a simple search test of the dataset titles [in brackets] below to confirm this impression. Report back via comments and published papers, musings and so on. Thanks


    Road density (km of road per 100 sq. km of land area) [IS.ROD.DNST.K2]
    Roads, goods transported (million ton-km) [IS.ROD.GOOD.MT.K6]
    Roads, paved (% of total roads) [IS.ROD.PAVE.ZS]
    Roads, passengers carried (million passenger-km) [IS.ROD.PSGR.K6]
    Road sector diesel fuel consumption (kt of oil equivalent) [IS.ROD.DESL.KT]
    Road sector diesel fuel consumption per capita (kg of oil equivalent) [IS.ROD.DESL.PC]
    Road sector energy consumption (kt of oil equivalent) [IS.ROD.ENGY.KT]
    Road sector energy consumption per capita (kg of oil equivalent) [IS.ROD.ENGY.PC]
    Road sector energy consumption (% of total energy consumption) [IS.ROD.ENGY.ZS]
    Road sector gasoline fuel consumption (kt of oil equivalent) [IS.ROD.SGAS.KT]
    Road sector gasoline fuel consumption per capita (kg of oil equivalent) [IS.ROD.SGAS.PC]
    Motor vehicles (per 1,000 people) [IS.VEH.NVEH.P3]
    Passenger cars (per 1,000 people) [IS.VEH.PCAR.P3]
    Vehicles (per km of road) [IS.VEH.ROAD.K1]

    Self-Analysis

    In 2006, New York Magazine identified 50 projects and commissioned the “world’s best architects” composite.

    In 2006, the most active and closely watched areas were:

    1. Atlantic Yards, Brooklyn, 2010 & 2016 (changing) See Atlantic Yards Superblocks.
    2. The New Museum, Chelsea. It’s done. Good neighbor? Bad neighbor?
    3. 80 South Street, Downtown, future (changing) approved in 05, so now what?
    4. IAC Headquarters, High Line, 2007 (ceramic pebbles in the glass to save energy)
    5. Silvercup West, Queens, 2009
    6. Freedom Tower, Downtown, 2015!

    Now approaching twenty years later for these areas time set aside for an assessment will prove instructive. Comments on the products regarding the social, economic, and environmental concerns are due. The public process used to promote the plans requires comparison with the end product requires analysis. The image source is New York Magazine 2006.

    Greenpoint Northside Waterfront

    Manhattan/Brooklyn Heights

    1. The Edge Stephen B. Jacobs; Master Plan FXFOWLE and TEN Arquitectos, Sept. 2008
    2. Palmer’s Dock FXFOWLE, phase one, 2008; phase two, 2009
    3. North 8: Greenberg Farrow Architecture, spring 2007
    4. Domino Sugar Site: Rafael Viñoly Architects, Park opened in 2018, ArchDigest: FEMA flood plan ArchRecRev (payportal)
    5. Schaefer Landing: Karl Fischer Architects, 2006
    6. Freedom Tower, David Childs/SOM; World Trade Center Transit Hub Santiago Calatrava; Tower 2, Sir Norman Foster; visitor center, 2011
    7. 101 Warren Street; SOM, Ismael Leyva Architects, 2007
    8. William Beaver House; Developer André Balazs, no completion date
    9. Staten Island Whitehall Ferry Terminal; Fred Schwartz, 2005
    10. Battery Maritime Building; Renovation, Jan Hird Pokorny Associates, 2006
    11. Beekman Street Tower l Gehry Partners, Ismael Leyva Architects
    12. 80 South Street: Santiago Calatrava
    13. Pier 17; Beyer Blinder Belle, no completion date
    14. Drawing Center; Architect TBA, 2011.
    15. East River Waterfront; SHoP and Richard Rogers Ken Smith Landscape Architects, 2009
    16. Brooklyn Bridge Park; Michael Van Valkenburgh, 2012
    17. One Brooklyn Bridge Park/360 Furman Street Creative Design Associates, fall 2007
    Upper West Side
    1. Javits Center; Rogers FXFOWLE Epstein, 2010.
    2. West Side Rail Yards No completion date.
    3. Moynihan Station David Childs/SOM, late 2010
    4. High Line; Field Operations and Diller Scofidio + Renfro, phase one, 2008; phase two, 2009
    5. Chelsea Arts Tower Kosser & Garry Architects, Gluckman Mayner Architects, HOK, Fall 2006.
    6. Vesta 24; Garrett Gourlay Architects and James D’Auria Associates, April 2006.
    7. Marianne Boesky Gallery Deborah Berke & Partners Architects, September 2006.
    8. West 23rd Street building Neil M. Denari Architects, Marc Rosenbaum, Gruzen Samton, 2008.
    9. General Theological Seminary Tower The Polshek Partnership, no completion date.
    10. High Line 519; ROY Co., late 2006
    11. West 19th Street building Ateliers Jean Nouvel, no completion date.
    12. IAC Headquarters Gehry Partners, March 2007.
    13. 516 West 19th Street Selldorf Architects, 2008
    14. The Caledonia Handel Architects, 2008.
    15. Chelsea Market Residence Gwathmey Siegel & Associates Architects
    16. The Standard, NY The Polshek Partnership, 2007. High Line Club Developers Charles Blaichman and André Balazs, no completion date
    17. Pier 57 Michel De Fournier and Gensler, no completion date
    18. Dia High Line; Roger Duffy/SOM, 2008.

    The health and prosperity of the world are at stake in this century. Planning, architecture, urban design, and engineering must become one discipline. It must take power to build connections to a far broader set of responsibilities. The need to produce so we don’t fail our kids, and their kids are now. Are the steps taken by these projects enough?

    Are public agencies overwhelmed? Can they force the building of the city that should be built, or managing the one that can be built by those this limited imagination and concise term interests. Our public bodies have enormous authority. They miss opportunities to correct imbalances, leverage resources, and eliminate errors for the lack of political will and the ability to take power?

    Anyone what to upgrade this with a starchitecture review?